LSEG Data & Analytics

[REPORT]

ECONOMIC SURPRISES: WHAT REALLY MOVES THE MARKETS?

What’s really driving economic surprises in US foreign exchange (FX) rates, government bond prices and equity value?

In this report, we study the impact of economic surprises in the US in three different markets: namely foreign exchange, government bond prices and equity value, defining “surprise” as the actual minus the consensus. We find that different markets tend to be affected by the same indicators, with employment being the most impactful.

It is interesting to note that, on average, inflation impacts the markets differently to employment. For foreign exchange and fixed income, it has the same directional impact as employment, while it moves equity in the opposite direction. The period under study is 2009 to 2022. We also discuss the power of the LSEG StarMine SmartEstimates model for economics, foreign exchange, bond yield, money markets, commodities and stock indices.

Access the full report by completing the form.

DOWNLOAD YOUR COPY OF 'ECONOMIC SURPRISES'

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