LSEG & General Index

LSEG & GENERAL INDEX WHITEPAPER

Lessons from Hormuz disruptions for

renewable fuel cost competitiveness

Has anything really changed? What a fossil shock revealed about the price of SAF

In early 2026, the Strait of Hormuz closed and fossil fuel prices spiked, but sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with no shared supply chain, rose right alongside them.

Was it a genuine shift in demand, a flawed pricing mechanism, or something else entirely?

In this joint paper, LSEG and General Index investigate what drove this unexpected price behaviour, analysing supply and demand fundamentals, trade data, production economics and market liquidity to uncover what's really behind SAF pricing.

Key findings explored in the paper:

When fossil fuel prices spiked after the Strait of Hormuz closed, SAF prices spiked almost in lockstep — despite having a completely separate supply chain.
Was it demand? Was it a flawed pricing mechanism? Or something the market hasn't been talking about? New GX/LSEG research investigates.
The paper puts SAF's price behaviour through supply data, demand data, cost models and market liquidity to see what's really driving it.
The findings challenge some of the assumptions the market has been making about SAF pricing since the crisis began.

Discover what was really driving SAF prices during one of the most significant energy market disruptions in recent years. Download the paper today.

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